周日104 · 2026-07-20 03:00 · Finished
西班牙 vs 阿根廷AI Win/Draw/Loss Prediction & Three-Model Analysis
Final score: 0-0（平）
AI Lean
阿根廷 win 83.0%
Confidence 72.7%
| Model | Home | Draw | Away | Pick | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly | 6.7% | 10.3% | 83.0% | 负 | 72.7% |
| 14-Match | 19.1% | 17.9% | 62.9% | 负 | 43.8% |
Kelly Index
Home
0.053
Draw
0.204
Away
0.041
How to read this? See the Kelly Index guide.
Beidan SP Reference
Beidan pays stake × SP × 65% (adjusted values below). Fair odds = 1 ÷ model probability; adjusted SP above fair odds suggests positive expected value (directional only under a handicap line).
| Outcome | SP | Adjusted (×0.65) | Fair odds | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.42 | 1.57 | 14.86 | — |
| Draw | 3.44 | 2.24 | 9.72 | — |
| Away | 3.36 | 2.18 | 1.21 | +EV |
SPs are reference values; settlement uses closing SPs. See the Beidan guide and parlay calculator.
FAQ
Who will win 西班牙 vs 阿根廷?
The AI model leans 阿根廷 win at 83.0%. Probabilities are not certainties; compare all three models and historical hit rates.
What are the win/draw/loss probabilities?
Home 6.7%, draw 10.3%, away 83.0%. Kickoff 2026-07-20 03:00.
Disclaimer: AI-generated data analysis for reference only, not betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.