周四005 · 2026-09-25 02:45 · Finished
葡萄牙 vs 威尔士AI Win/Draw/Loss Prediction & Three-Model Analysis
Final score: 1-0（胜）
AI Lean
葡萄牙 win 76.2%
Confidence 61.4%
| Model | Home | Draw | Away | Pick | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly | 76.2% | 14.7% | 9.1% | 胜 | 61.4% |
| 14-Match | 76.2% | 14.7% | 9.1% | 胜 | 61.4% |
Kelly Index
Home
0.028
Draw
0.087
Away
0.128
How to read this? See the Kelly Index guide.
Beidan SP ReferenceHandicap (-2)
Beidan pays stake × SP × 65% (adjusted values below). Fair odds = 1 ÷ model probability; adjusted SP above fair odds suggests positive expected value (directional only under a handicap line).
| Outcome | SP | Adjusted (×0.65) | Fair odds | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.23 | 1.45 | 1.31 | — |
| Draw | 3.64 | 2.37 | 6.78 | — |
| Away | 3.57 | 2.32 | 10.99 | — |
SPs are reference values; settlement uses closing SPs. See the Beidan guide and parlay calculator.
FAQ
Who will win 葡萄牙 vs 威尔士?
The AI model leans 葡萄牙 win at 76.2%. Probabilities are not certainties; compare all three models and historical hit rates.
What are the win/draw/loss probabilities?
Home 76.2%, draw 14.7%, away 9.1%. Kickoff 2026-09-25 02:45.
Disclaimer: AI-generated data analysis for reference only, not betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.