周三003 · 2026-09-02 18:00
水户蜀葵 vs 鹿岛鹿角AI Win/Draw/Loss Prediction & Three-Model Analysis
AI Lean
鹿岛鹿角 win 44.9%
Confidence 16.5%
| Model | Home | Draw | Away | Pick | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly | 28.4% | 26.7% | 44.9% | 负 | 16.5% |
Kelly Index
Home
0.037
Draw
0.034
Away
0.027
How to read this? See the Kelly Index guide.
Beidan SP ReferenceHandicap (+1)
Beidan pays stake × SP × 65% (adjusted values below). Fair odds = 1 ÷ model probability; adjusted SP above fair odds suggests positive expected value (directional only under a handicap line).
| Outcome | SP | Adjusted (×0.65) | Fair odds | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.24 | 0.81 | 3.52 | — |
| Draw | 44.27 | 28.78 | 3.74 | — |
| Away | 5.79 | 3.76 | 2.23 | — |
SPs are reference values; settlement uses closing SPs. See the Beidan guide and parlay calculator.
FAQ
Who will win 水户蜀葵 vs 鹿岛鹿角?
The AI model leans 鹿岛鹿角 win at 44.9%. Probabilities are not certainties; compare all three models and historical hit rates.
What are the win/draw/loss probabilities?
Home 28.4%, draw 26.7%, away 44.9%. Kickoff 2026-09-02 18:00.
Disclaimer: AI-generated data analysis for reference only, not betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.