周三003 · 2026-09-02 18:00 · Finished
水户蜀葵 vs 鹿岛鹿角AI Win/Draw/Loss Prediction & Three-Model Analysis
Final score: 4-2（胜）
AI Lean
鹿岛鹿角 win 49.1%
Confidence 23.5%
| Model | Home | Draw | Away | Pick | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly | 25.4% | 25.6% | 49.1% | 负 | 23.5% |
Kelly Index
Home
0.045
Draw
0.035
Away
0.028
How to read this? See the Kelly Index guide.
Beidan SP ReferenceHandicap (+1)
Beidan pays stake × SP × 65% (adjusted values below). Fair odds = 1 ÷ model probability; adjusted SP above fair odds suggests positive expected value (directional only under a handicap line).
| Outcome | SP | Adjusted (×0.65) | Fair odds | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.98 | 1.94 | 3.94 | — |
| Draw | — | — | 3.91 | — |
| Away | — | — | 2.04 | — |
SPs are reference values; settlement uses closing SPs. See the Beidan guide and parlay calculator.
FAQ
Who will win 水户蜀葵 vs 鹿岛鹿角?
The AI model leans 鹿岛鹿角 win at 49.1%. Probabilities are not certainties; compare all three models and historical hit rates.
What are the win/draw/loss probabilities?
Home 25.4%, draw 25.6%, away 49.1%. Kickoff 2026-09-02 18:00.
Disclaimer: AI-generated data analysis for reference only, not betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.