26104 · 2026-08-15 00:30 · Finished
基尔 vs 圣保利AI Win/Draw/Loss Prediction & Three-Model Analysis
Final score: 2-2（平）
AI Lean
Draw 42.2%
Confidence 5.3%
| Model | Home | Draw | Away | Pick | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly | 36.9% | 42.2% | 20.9% | 平 | 5.3% |
| 14-Match | 36.9% | 42.2% | 20.9% | 平 | 5.3% |
Kelly Index
Home
0.029
Draw
0.033
Away
0.035
How to read this? See the Kelly Index guide.
Beidan SP Reference
Beidan pays stake × SP × 65% (adjusted values below). Fair odds = 1 ÷ model probability; adjusted SP above fair odds suggests positive expected value (directional only under a handicap line).
| Outcome | SP | Adjusted (×0.65) | Fair odds | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | — | — | 2.71 | — |
| Draw | 3.79 | 2.46 | 2.37 | +EV |
| Away | — | — | 4.78 | — |
SPs are reference values; settlement uses closing SPs. See the Beidan guide and parlay calculator.
FAQ
Who will win 基尔 vs 圣保利?
The AI model leans Draw at 42.2%. Probabilities are not certainties; compare all three models and historical hit rates.
What are the win/draw/loss probabilities?
Home 36.9%, draw 42.2%, away 20.9%. Kickoff 2026-08-15 00:30.
Disclaimer: AI-generated data analysis for reference only, not betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.