周六029 · 2026-09-20 03:30 · Finished
里斯本 vs 阿罗卡AI Win/Draw/Loss Prediction & Three-Model Analysis
Final score: 2-2（平）
AI Lean
里斯本 win 82.2%
Confidence 71.8%
| Model | Home | Draw | Away | Pick | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly | 82.2% | 10.4% | 7.3% | 胜 | 71.8% |
Kelly Index
Home
0.023
Draw
0.078
Away
0.111
How to read this? See the Kelly Index guide.
Beidan SP ReferenceHandicap (-2)
Beidan pays stake × SP × 65% (adjusted values below). Fair odds = 1 ÷ model probability; adjusted SP above fair odds suggests positive expected value (directional only under a handicap line).
| Outcome | SP | Adjusted (×0.65) | Fair odds | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | — | — | 1.22 | — |
| Draw | — | — | 9.57 | — |
| Away | 4.25 | 2.76 | 13.64 | — |
SPs are reference values; settlement uses closing SPs. See the Beidan guide and parlay calculator.
FAQ
Who will win 里斯本 vs 阿罗卡?
The AI model leans 里斯本 win at 82.2%. Probabilities are not certainties; compare all three models and historical hit rates.
What are the win/draw/loss probabilities?
Home 82.2%, draw 10.4%, away 7.3%. Kickoff 2026-09-20 03:30.
Disclaimer: AI-generated data analysis for reference only, not betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.