周日029 · 2026-09-21 03:30 · Finished
波尔图 vs 本菲卡AI Win/Draw/Loss Prediction & Three-Model Analysis
Final score: 3-1（胜）
AI Lean
本菲卡 win 36.5%
Confidence 0.1%
| Model | Home | Draw | Away | Pick | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly | 27.1% | 36.4% | 36.5% | 负 | 0.1% |
Kelly Index
Home
0.047
Draw
0.032
Away
0.040
How to read this? See the Kelly Index guide.
Beidan SP Reference
Beidan pays stake × SP × 65% (adjusted values below). Fair odds = 1 ÷ model probability; adjusted SP above fair odds suggests positive expected value (directional only under a handicap line).
| Outcome | SP | Adjusted (×0.65) | Fair odds | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.17 | 2.06 | 3.69 | — |
| Draw | — | — | 2.75 | — |
| Away | — | — | 2.74 | — |
SPs are reference values; settlement uses closing SPs. See the Beidan guide and parlay calculator.
FAQ
Who will win 波尔图 vs 本菲卡?
The AI model leans 本菲卡 win at 36.5%. Probabilities are not certainties; compare all three models and historical hit rates.
What are the win/draw/loss probabilities?
Home 27.1%, draw 36.4%, away 36.5%. Kickoff 2026-09-21 03:30.
Disclaimer: AI-generated data analysis for reference only, not betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.