26124 · 2026-09-14 03:30 · Finished
法马利康 vs 里斯本AI Win/Draw/Loss Prediction & Three-Model Analysis
Final score: 1-1（平）
AI Lean
里斯本 win 75.6%
Confidence 60.3%
| Model | Home | Draw | Away | Pick | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly | 9.0% | 15.4% | 75.6% | 负 | 60.3% |
| 14-Match | 9.0% | 15.4% | 75.6% | 负 | 60.3% |
Kelly Index
Home
0.057
Draw
0.043
Away
0.026
How to read this? See the Kelly Index guide.
Beidan SP ReferenceHandicap (+1)
Beidan pays stake × SP × 65% (adjusted values below). Fair odds = 1 ÷ model probability; adjusted SP above fair odds suggests positive expected value (directional only under a handicap line).
| Outcome | SP | Adjusted (×0.65) | Fair odds | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.86 | 2.51 | 11.11 | — |
| Draw | — | — | 6.51 | — |
| Away | — | — | 1.32 | — |
SPs are reference values; settlement uses closing SPs. See the Beidan guide and parlay calculator.
FAQ
Who will win 法马利康 vs 里斯本?
The AI model leans 里斯本 win at 75.6%. Probabilities are not certainties; compare all three models and historical hit rates.
What are the win/draw/loss probabilities?
Home 9.0%, draw 15.4%, away 75.6%. Kickoff 2026-09-14 03:30.
Disclaimer: AI-generated data analysis for reference only, not betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.