26104 · 2026-08-15 03:15 · Finished
里斯本 vs 吉马良斯AI Win/Draw/Loss Prediction & Three-Model Analysis
Final score: 3-2（胜）
AI Lean
里斯本 win 86.1%
Confidence 76.8%
| Model | Home | Draw | Away | Pick | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly | 86.1% | 9.2% | 4.7% | 胜 | 76.8% |
| 14-Match | 86.1% | 9.2% | 4.7% | 胜 | 76.8% |
Kelly Index
Home
0.044
Draw
0.087
Away
0.139
How to read this? See the Kelly Index guide.
Beidan SP ReferenceHandicap (-2)
Beidan pays stake × SP × 65% (adjusted values below). Fair odds = 1 ÷ model probability; adjusted SP above fair odds suggests positive expected value (directional only under a handicap line).
| Outcome | SP | Adjusted (×0.65) | Fair odds | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | — | — | 1.16 | — |
| Draw | — | — | 10.85 | — |
| Away | 2.06 | 1.34 | 21.19 | — |
SPs are reference values; settlement uses closing SPs. See the Beidan guide and parlay calculator.
FAQ
Who will win 里斯本 vs 吉马良斯?
The AI model leans 里斯本 win at 86.1%. Probabilities are not certainties; compare all three models and historical hit rates.
What are the win/draw/loss probabilities?
Home 86.1%, draw 9.2%, away 4.7%. Kickoff 2026-08-15 03:15.
Disclaimer: AI-generated data analysis for reference only, not betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.