周日013 · 2026-08-16 22:30 · Finished
葡萄牙国民 vs 埃斯托里AI Win/Draw/Loss Prediction & Three-Model Analysis
Final score: 2-0（胜）
AI Lean
葡萄牙国民 win 35.3%
Confidence 0.7%
| Model | Home | Draw | Away | Pick | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly | 35.3% | 30.1% | 34.6% | 胜 | 0.7% |
| 14-Match | 35.3% | 30.1% | 34.6% | 胜 | 0.7% |
Kelly Index
Home
0.044
Draw
0.030
Away
0.033
How to read this? See the Kelly Index guide.
Beidan SP Reference
Beidan pays stake × SP × 65% (adjusted values below). Fair odds = 1 ÷ model probability; adjusted SP above fair odds suggests positive expected value (directional only under a handicap line).
| Outcome | SP | Adjusted (×0.65) | Fair odds | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.43 | 2.23 | 2.83 | — |
| Draw | — | — | 3.32 | — |
| Away | — | — | 2.89 | — |
SPs are reference values; settlement uses closing SPs. See the Beidan guide and parlay calculator.
FAQ
Who will win 葡萄牙国民 vs 埃斯托里?
The AI model leans 葡萄牙国民 win at 35.3%. Probabilities are not certainties; compare all three models and historical hit rates.
What are the win/draw/loss probabilities?
Home 35.3%, draw 30.1%, away 34.6%. Kickoff 2026-08-16 22:30.
Disclaimer: AI-generated data analysis for reference only, not betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.