周一005 · 2026-08-18 03:15 · Finished
卡萨皮亚 vs 本菲卡AI Win/Draw/Loss Prediction & Three-Model Analysis
Final score: 0-7（负）
AI Lean
本菲卡 win 80.7%
Confidence 68.2%
| Model | Home | Draw | Away | Pick | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly | 6.7% | 12.5% | 80.7% | 负 | 68.2% |
Kelly Index
Home
0.124
Draw
0.066
Away
0.021
How to read this? See the Kelly Index guide.
Beidan SP ReferenceHandicap (+2)
Beidan pays stake × SP × 65% (adjusted values below). Fair odds = 1 ÷ model probability; adjusted SP above fair odds suggests positive expected value (directional only under a handicap line).
| Outcome | SP | Adjusted (×0.65) | Fair odds | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.73 | 1.77 | 14.84 | — |
| Draw | 3.58 | 2.33 | 7.98 | — |
| Away | 2.81 | 1.83 | 1.24 | — |
SPs are reference values; settlement uses closing SPs. See the Beidan guide and parlay calculator.
FAQ
Who will win 卡萨皮亚 vs 本菲卡?
The AI model leans 本菲卡 win at 80.7%. Probabilities are not certainties; compare all three models and historical hit rates.
What are the win/draw/loss probabilities?
Home 6.7%, draw 12.5%, away 80.7%. Kickoff 2026-08-18 03:15.
Disclaimer: AI-generated data analysis for reference only, not betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.