26101 · 2026-08-08 22:30 · Finished
马里迪莫 vs 卡萨皮亚AI Win/Draw/Loss Prediction & Three-Model Analysis
Final score: 1-0（胜）
AI Lean
马里迪莫 win 40.8%
Confidence 7.4%
| Model | Home | Draw | Away | Pick | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly | 40.8% | 25.7% | 33.5% | 胜 | 7.4% |
| 14-Match | 40.8% | 25.7% | 33.5% | 胜 | 7.4% |
Kelly Index
Home
0.054
Draw
0.040
Away
0.061
How to read this? See the Kelly Index guide.
Beidan SP Reference
Beidan pays stake × SP × 65% (adjusted values below). Fair odds = 1 ÷ model probability; adjusted SP above fair odds suggests positive expected value (directional only under a handicap line).
| Outcome | SP | Adjusted (×0.65) | Fair odds | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.08 | 1.35 | 2.45 | — |
| Draw | — | — | 3.89 | — |
| Away | — | — | 2.99 | — |
SPs are reference values; settlement uses closing SPs. See the Beidan guide and parlay calculator.
FAQ
Who will win 马里迪莫 vs 卡萨皮亚?
The AI model leans 马里迪莫 win at 40.8%. Probabilities are not certainties; compare all three models and historical hit rates.
What are the win/draw/loss probabilities?
Home 40.8%, draw 25.7%, away 33.5%. Kickoff 2026-08-08 22:30.
Disclaimer: AI-generated data analysis for reference only, not betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.