26101 · 2026-08-09 03:30 · Finished
阿马多拉 vs 里斯本AI Win/Draw/Loss Prediction & Three-Model Analysis
Final score: 2-2（平）
AI Lean
里斯本 win 80.5%
Confidence 66.5%
| Model | Home | Draw | Away | Pick | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly | 5.5% | 14.0% | 80.5% | 负 | 66.5% |
| 14-Match | 5.5% | 14.0% | 80.5% | 负 | 66.5% |
Kelly Index
Home
0.104
Draw
0.055
Away
0.024
How to read this? See the Kelly Index guide.
Beidan SP ReferenceHandicap (+2)
Beidan pays stake × SP × 65% (adjusted values below). Fair odds = 1 ÷ model probability; adjusted SP above fair odds suggests positive expected value (directional only under a handicap line).
| Outcome | SP | Adjusted (×0.65) | Fair odds | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.22 | 1.44 | 18.25 | — |
| Draw | — | — | 7.15 | — |
| Away | — | — | 1.24 | — |
SPs are reference values; settlement uses closing SPs. See the Beidan guide and parlay calculator.
FAQ
Who will win 阿马多拉 vs 里斯本?
The AI model leans 里斯本 win at 80.5%. Probabilities are not certainties; compare all three models and historical hit rates.
What are the win/draw/loss probabilities?
Home 5.5%, draw 14.0%, away 80.5%. Kickoff 2026-08-09 03:30.
Disclaimer: AI-generated data analysis for reference only, not betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.