周四010 · 2026-09-18 03:30 · Finished
马拉加 vs 比利亚雷AI Win/Draw/Loss Prediction & Three-Model Analysis
Final score: 1-3（负）
AI Lean
马拉加 win 41.5%
Confidence 9.5%
| Model | Home | Draw | Away | Pick | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly | 41.5% | 32.0% | 26.5% | 胜 | 9.5% |
| 14-Match | 41.5% | 32.0% | 26.5% | 胜 | 9.5% |
Kelly Index
Home
0.038
Draw
0.023
Away
0.032
How to read this? See the Kelly Index guide.
Beidan SP Reference
Beidan pays stake × SP × 65% (adjusted values below). Fair odds = 1 ÷ model probability; adjusted SP above fair odds suggests positive expected value (directional only under a handicap line).
| Outcome | SP | Adjusted (×0.65) | Fair odds | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.76 | 3.74 | 2.41 | +EV |
| Draw | 3.96 | 2.57 | 3.12 | — |
| Away | 1.74 | 1.13 | 3.78 | — |
SPs are reference values; settlement uses closing SPs. See the Beidan guide and parlay calculator.
FAQ
Who will win 马拉加 vs 比利亚雷?
The AI model leans 马拉加 win at 41.5%. Probabilities are not certainties; compare all three models and historical hit rates.
What are the win/draw/loss probabilities?
Home 41.5%, draw 32.0%, away 26.5%. Kickoff 2026-09-18 03:30.
Disclaimer: AI-generated data analysis for reference only, not betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.