26126 · 2026-09-16 03:30 · Finished
埃尔切 vs 皇马AI Win/Draw/Loss Prediction & Three-Model Analysis
Final score: 2-3（负）
AI Lean
皇马 win 72.5%
Confidence 56.3%
| Model | Home | Draw | Away | Pick | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly | 11.2% | 16.2% | 72.5% | 负 | 56.3% |
| 14-Match | 11.2% | 16.2% | 72.5% | 负 | 56.3% |
Kelly Index
Home
0.117
Draw
0.053
Away
0.026
How to read this? See the Kelly Index guide.
Beidan SP ReferenceHandicap (+2)
Beidan pays stake × SP × 65% (adjusted values below). Fair odds = 1 ÷ model probability; adjusted SP above fair odds suggests positive expected value (directional only under a handicap line).
| Outcome | SP | Adjusted (×0.65) | Fair odds | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.75 | 1.79 | 8.91 | — |
| Draw | — | — | 6.16 | — |
| Away | — | — | 1.38 | — |
SPs are reference values; settlement uses closing SPs. See the Beidan guide and parlay calculator.
FAQ
Who will win 埃尔切 vs 皇马?
The AI model leans 皇马 win at 72.5%. Probabilities are not certainties; compare all three models and historical hit rates.
What are the win/draw/loss probabilities?
Home 11.2%, draw 16.2%, away 72.5%. Kickoff 2026-09-16 03:30.
Disclaimer: AI-generated data analysis for reference only, not betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.