26123 · 2026-09-13 03:00 · Finished
皇马 vs 巴列卡诺AI Win/Draw/Loss Prediction & Three-Model Analysis
Final score: 4-1（胜）
AI Lean
皇马 win 87.9%
Confidence 81.1%
| Model | Home | Draw | Away | Pick | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly | 87.9% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 胜 | 81.1% |
| 14-Match | 87.9% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 胜 | 81.1% |
Kelly Index
Home
0.024
Draw
0.075
Away
0.128
How to read this? See the Kelly Index guide.
Beidan SP ReferenceHandicap (-2)
Beidan pays stake × SP × 65% (adjusted values below). Fair odds = 1 ÷ model probability; adjusted SP above fair odds suggests positive expected value (directional only under a handicap line).
| Outcome | SP | Adjusted (×0.65) | Fair odds | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.71 | 1.11 | 1.14 | — |
| Draw | — | — | 14.88 | — |
| Away | — | — | 18.48 | — |
SPs are reference values; settlement uses closing SPs. See the Beidan guide and parlay calculator.
FAQ
Who will win 皇马 vs 巴列卡诺?
The AI model leans 皇马 win at 87.9%. Probabilities are not certainties; compare all three models and historical hit rates.
What are the win/draw/loss probabilities?
Home 87.9%, draw 6.7%, away 5.4%. Kickoff 2026-09-13 03:00.
Disclaimer: AI-generated data analysis for reference only, not betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.