26122 · 2026-09-12 02:00 · Finished
阿尔克马 vs 威廉二世AI Win/Draw/Loss Prediction & Three-Model Analysis
Final score: 1-1（平）
AI Lean
阿尔克马 win 72.0%
Confidence 53.3%
| Model | Home | Draw | Away | Pick | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly | 72.0% | 18.7% | 9.3% | 胜 | 53.3% |
| 14-Match | 72.0% | 18.7% | 9.3% | 胜 | 53.3% |
Kelly Index
Home
0.024
Draw
0.067
Away
0.087
How to read this? See the Kelly Index guide.
Beidan SP ReferenceHandicap (-2)
Beidan pays stake × SP × 65% (adjusted values below). Fair odds = 1 ÷ model probability; adjusted SP above fair odds suggests positive expected value (directional only under a handicap line).
| Outcome | SP | Adjusted (×0.65) | Fair odds | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | — | — | 1.39 | — |
| Draw | — | — | 5.35 | — |
| Away | 3.41 | 2.22 | 10.70 | — |
SPs are reference values; settlement uses closing SPs. See the Beidan guide and parlay calculator.
FAQ
Who will win 阿尔克马 vs 威廉二世?
The AI model leans 阿尔克马 win at 72.0%. Probabilities are not certainties; compare all three models and historical hit rates.
What are the win/draw/loss probabilities?
Home 72.0%, draw 18.7%, away 9.3%. Kickoff 2026-09-12 02:00.
Disclaimer: AI-generated data analysis for reference only, not betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.