周日203 · 2026-07-19 22:30 · Finished
埃尔夫斯堡 vs 天狼星AI Win/Draw/Loss Prediction & Three-Model Analysis
Final score: 1-3（负）
AI Lean
天狼星 win 48.5%
Confidence 19.1%
| Model | Home | Draw | Away | Pick | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly | 22.2% | 29.4% | 48.5% | 负 | 19.1% |
Kelly Index
Home
0.042
Draw
0.030
Away
0.033
How to read this? See the Kelly Index guide.
Beidan SP ReferenceHandicap (+1)
Beidan pays stake × SP × 65% (adjusted values below). Fair odds = 1 ÷ model probability; adjusted SP above fair odds suggests positive expected value (directional only under a handicap line).
| Outcome | SP | Adjusted (×0.65) | Fair odds | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.26 | 1.47 | 4.51 | — |
| Draw | 3.78 | 2.46 | 3.41 | — |
| Away | 3.39 | 2.20 | 2.06 | — |
SPs are reference values; settlement uses closing SPs. See the Beidan guide and parlay calculator.
FAQ
Who will win 埃尔夫斯堡 vs 天狼星?
The AI model leans 天狼星 win at 48.5%. Probabilities are not certainties; compare all three models and historical hit rates.
What are the win/draw/loss probabilities?
Home 22.2%, draw 29.4%, away 48.5%. Kickoff 2026-07-19 22:30.
Disclaimer: AI-generated data analysis for reference only, not betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.