周三208 · 2026-07-23 08:30 · Finished
圣保罗 vs 巴拉纳竞技AI Win/Draw/Loss Prediction & Three-Model Analysis
Final score: 1-2（负）
AI Lean
圣保罗 win 60.9%
Confidence 39.1%
| Model | Home | Draw | Away | Pick | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly | 60.9% | 21.8% | 17.3% | 胜 | 39.1% |
| 14-Match | 60.9% | 21.8% | 17.3% | 胜 | 39.1% |
Kelly Index
Home
0.028
Draw
0.032
Away
0.052
How to read this? See the Kelly Index guide.
Beidan SP Reference
Beidan pays stake × SP × 65% (adjusted values below). Fair odds = 1 ÷ model probability; adjusted SP above fair odds suggests positive expected value (directional only under a handicap line).
| Outcome | SP | Adjusted (×0.65) | Fair odds | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | — | — | 1.64 | — |
| Draw | — | — | 4.59 | — |
| Away | 7.14 | 4.64 | 5.79 | — |
SPs are reference values; settlement uses closing SPs. See the Beidan guide and parlay calculator.
FAQ
Who will win 圣保罗 vs 巴拉纳竞技?
The AI model leans 圣保罗 win at 60.9%. Probabilities are not certainties; compare all three models and historical hit rates.
What are the win/draw/loss probabilities?
Home 60.9%, draw 21.8%, away 17.3%. Kickoff 2026-07-23 08:30.
Disclaimer: AI-generated data analysis for reference only, not betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.